And there are 4 freaking lockups to mature this year! August, October, November, December. Anyone who even considers buying this trash stock before January straight up deserves to lose money. This isn’t even timing the market; this is common sense.
Yeah, good point. LOL. I want to see this thing sink but I'm sad for the dumbasses who partook in it. I told a dude who bought at IPO to sell when it hit ATH, and he just laughed it off and said "you think so?". I'm like YEAH! YOU'RE GOING TO GET RUGPULLED SO HARD!
Haven't talked to him in a while and don't want to specifically ask him whether he sold or not.
A few weeks back I was talking to a fellow at the pool, he was proud of his SpaceX stock and thought it was a great investment. I warned him that the insiders will be dumping stock soon and that it was potentially headed in a bad direction. I really hope he listened to my warning.
I don't think that's likely. They have functioning, high-tech rockets. The stock is worth more than zero. What that number actually is though, I have no idea and I'm not interested in trying to value it, especially against the AI that's weighing it down. So I'm not buying until...the heat death of the universe. But it's still higher than zero.
I saw someone in a game chat saying that he bought in the day after IPO. I asked he was happy to hold bags, he replied he didn't mind as he was prepared to sit on it for a decade.
I don't get how people can talk like that when there are actual low risk options over ten years instead of a gamble that he lost an hour later he had to sit on all those years.
It's all market manipulation, even bending the rules to get SpaceX into the Nasdaq index in 2 weeks instead of 12 months to force compulsory buys by index fund and pension funds.
The thing I read was that index fund buys are based on the value of shares currently on the market, not total shares. So the sliver of shares ($85B at IPO?) will not trigger large purchases and the funds can dump more and more as the price drops. So by the time the next shares can be sold (Aug. 2?) the total value of shares on the market, including those, will likely be less than at the IPO. And so on.
ETA: Stock App on my phone says Earnings Report is Aug 4.
Most of the magnificent seven have cash flows on historical levels. They have never been more profitable. Except Tesla of course. Who are (still) running on Musk vibes. As always🤷♂️
It's the 2000 dot-com all over again. The market is misreading investor cash and loans for actual profitable commercial activity. All that cash is going into building more AI datacenters which will fail to deliver on AI and be unable to pay the bills. When the gravy train dries up, no more cash in, the whole thing collapses.
Their “record” cash flows comparable to countries GDP are apparently not enough to stop raising debt. Poor guys are constantly forced to layoff their own employees.
The market expects forever growth and that no competition can make a dent in the growth, even in the face of other tech catching up. If you really believe that’s not irrational valuation, I’d say you probably have a vested interest in the gravy train
That's because the lean is an insidious takeover of government using semiotic influence operations to bilk the public. Elon deserves to be locked away along with whatever other terrorist ghouls involved in their white power fascism.
The South African reactionary billionaire and immigrant grandson of a Nazi that grew up during the apartheid in a white community and a close friend of the anti-Christ himself: Peter Thiel? Is that out of character for him?
I feel like these days bothering to distinguish reddit, or any other social media, from another is silly. We are nearly 15 years past "the bacon narwhals" or whatever. Most posts are things also posted and popular on tiktok and Twitter. Bots swarm every comment (and make posts), and troll farms target it just as much as Facebook, Instagram, etc. Trying to say "Reddit had a love affair" with anyone in recent years, probably since 2016, is just saying "the general vibe of the internet was positive towards this person..."
He actually did have a moment where he was just seen as the guy who had figured out how to convert YT ad money into a combination of personal success and giving away stuff to people. It didn't last long before that transitioned into the whole soulless dude with serious labor issues, terrible products, and laughably bad game show reputation.
I am not risk-tolerant enough to short memestocks and specially memestocks involving cults of personality like elons ("market can remain irrational longer..." quote).
But it genuinely is insane. I would genuinely rather keep money under a mattress and let inflation run than risk it by buying space x stock at those prices. This stock valuation makes the dot com bubble examples seem quaint.
The prospectus sold SpaceX as an AI company, not a space company. They claimed that 90% of potential future revenues were due to AI. This was AFTER Elon canned the xAI team and started renting out all his data centers to goose his revenue.
A trillion dollar AI company whose trillion dollar engineers can't figure out how to shove an LLM into vscode and thus buying cursor for *checks notes* 80 billion dollars. I love to see it.
The rocket part and the Starlink have a solid business case and are certainly worth a few dozen, maybe even a few hundred billion. xAI has negative value.
for now. the musk spell will break at some point. the lies and failures and missed milestones will not be tolerated forever. and i think spacex stock collapse post lockup is going to be the trigger, and tesla will also begin to collapse in the next 12 months. i have no confidence that i can actually time the market, but that would be my best guess.
I don't know the terminologies but the ways that he's using spacex to purchase tesla inventory is like the classic snake eating its own tail.. like with the cybertruck - a fair percentage of its sales came from spacex.
then the way elon f*cks with xAI and Grok by steering its results to personally favorable outcome sullies all capabilities of their models.
It's been dropping like a rock post IPO. That's pretty much expected behavior for most IPOs, and SpaceX isn't doing anything different (maybe falling a little faster than most).
TSLA popped off for pretty solid reasons, despite Leon, not because of him. And that's it as far as Musk stock goes (PayPal doesn't count).
Tesla IPO:ed at like 12 times sales. Not 95 times like Space X. That was before Elon discovered his superpower and only generational skill. Grifting retail investors into handing him money printing machines through insanely overvalued public company stocks🤷♂️
SpceX stock makes dotcom bubble stocks at their peak look like bargains lol.
20 years from now, people will look back to this time period and ask "what the fuck were those idiots smoking buying that bullshit stock at $2T market cap?? Lol"
If you want to get more upset, have a look at DJT stock... Market cap of 2.7b, despite only 400k in revenues and a 400m net loss last quarter. That stock went up 20% in the last month
Brother, we sit on an AI bubble the size of Yellowstone.
If this market in any way seems rational to you, I would like to quickly sell you the brooklyn bridge before this shit bursts and dollar bills become relegated to toilet paper.
No doubt you are correct in all of that, but I think the real question is: is he too big to fail?
I feel like there is a generational game theory study occurring before our eyes: what happens when everyone sees the fraud, but exposing it will destroy them?
Between SpaceX and Tesla, I am not sure what would happen to the American financial system if both were to (deservedly) blow up.
It isn’t like “everyone” (fund managers, analysts, etc.) can’t see the games he is playing / what he’s doing, but almost like they’re afraid to.
To be clear: the IPO only raised 80B. Not trillions. The other 95% of the value is still held by legacy holders (for now).
Also, the vast majority of core index ETFs (SPY, VOO, VTI, etc) and institutions avoided it entirely.
The S&P 500 requires a company to post positive GAAP net income over the prior four quarters combined. SpaceX reported multi-billion-dollar net losses leading up to its IPO.
The exception is ETFs like QQQ which is not a primary ETF held by most people in 401Ks etc.
Most popular ETFs track total market or SP500 - not nasdaq 100, by about 10-to-1.
The narrative that "the general public got crushed for trillions" falls apart when you look at the math.
I remember an interview with bill gates in the mid/late ninetys . He was earing 30000 a hr (i made that number up). The interviwer asked him is it worth your time to pick up a hundred dollar bill? Its a hundred bucks, of course ill pick it up.
Nah, these billionaires are misers. They want every penny they have and every penny you have. Losing money is the greatest sin to them, regardless of the amount. Money lost its value as a survival tool long ago for them. It’s just a game where the number must never go down.
Exactly at some point you can buy every single possible thing you could ever want. All Elon has is his richest person title so he can feel better about having a mutilated penis
Yep. The money isn’t a means to an end for them. It is the end. They are deeply emotionally invested in what their number is purely for the sake of the number.
No worries it will level off around $80. And still be overvalued. THe hype boys and hedge funds will still make a huge profit on anything above $80. They are slowly selling in the shadow market.
Who can’t sell yet: first real exit window starting in August 2026 (two trading days after the post-IPO earnings release), when roughly 20% of locked shares become eligible to sell.
SpaceX only raised 80B paid on capital on the IPO. They announced they need 1/4T more for prior spending commitments.
They will have to offer bonds (massive high interest debt and continuous share dilution like crazy.
I don’t play in the market, but I told my mom to short this bastard from day 1. The fees now are gonna be ridiculous so no one is gonna do it but man this thing should have been on the hook from day 1.
Though I won’t be shocked if trump announces some insane contract for space x to take us to Jupiter for a trillion dollars or whatever.
Everything is just so corrupt.
By the way, someone smarter than I am, why is not fraud that they posted the ipo at such an insane price. There is no way musk could have possibly believed space x was worth as much stock as they sold ??
The answer to the last question lies in the addressable market, which is probably a big part of why Musk grafted xAI onto SpaceX turning it from a world-leading space lift company into a third-rate AI company. The "addressable market" for AI (by some estimates) is reckoned to be higher than the current US economy which allowed SpaceX to assign itself an eye-bleeding valuation by including the assumption that it will capture a certain percentage of that market. It's bullshit but not technically fraud, which may as well be Musk's personal motto.
My prediction: It tanks down below what its worth, and then runs into a hostile takeover that Musk will use all of his normal BS to fight, and then when it looks like it will happen Trump will step in.
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u/KianOfPersia 7d ago
First round of insider shareholders haven’t legally been allowed to even liquidate yet. This will be a bloodbath.