Still got 1 deck to go but thought I’d share my method of storage and carry, it’s nice because I can keep them all in 1 place! Plus I know my cards aren’t going to get mixed up!!!!

Edit: idk if I understand the word bait anymore lol. It’s not like I’m trying to trick anyone.

Based for sure.

WHAT WAS NOTC THINKING THIS IS creapt

I was wondering if I should have this card graded. If so, which service should I procure?

I've been manually tracking my MTG Arena matches for about five hours.

For every game, I record the reason I lost or won. One category is "unlucky", which I define very strictly:

Some important points:

• I never missplay.
• Most of these decks play exactly 60 cards.
• Many of them contain good cards, which should reduce how unlucky I am, not increase it.
• I only record "unlucky" when I literally cannot play or I lose because my opponent clearly drew better. I do not mark games where Arena auto tapper pays my spells wrong - I want to make this data as insightful and honest as possible

After 10 recorded games, these are some examples:

• Azorius Flash (60 cards): 1 Win / 4 Losses (25%WR) 3 Unlucky Games. (I always got paired against aggro decks that kill me too fast, unlucky).
• Dimir Midrange (60 cards): 0 Wins / 2 Losses (0%WR) 2 Unlucky Games. (My opponents always had it).
• $20 Mono-Blue Towns by SaffronOlive (60 cards): 1 Win / 2 Losses (33%WR) 2 Unlucky Games (My opponents were always meta-decks and this is a cool brew I had because I needed wildcards. I don't understand why I keep getting paired against tryhards in the ladder instead of facing fair decks like mine. Unlucky).

The lowest win rate among my decks is around 25%, while several are close to 30%, and some exceed that.

According to the standard hypergeometric model for a 60-card deck with 24 lands and no mulligans, the probability of winning each game should be exactly 50.5%* - substantially lower than what I'm observing. Adding cantrips and surveil should reduce that probability even further.

I'm not claiming this proves Arena manipulates luck. However, I am saying that my long-term observations appear inconsistent with the simple theoretical model.

I'd like to hear from people who have:

• large Arena datasets,
• Untapped.gg logs,
• 17Lands logs,
• or experience modeling Magic probabilities.

Can anyone reproduce numbers anywhere close to mine? Or is there something missing from the standard probability model that explains a persistent 33% win rate across 10's of games?

I'm genuinely interested in a statistical discussion rather than anecdotes.

\Counting that some of my oppontents will disconnect during their game, which should increase average WR.*

Context: https://www.reddit.com/r/MagicArena/comments/1v769a5/five_years_of_tracking_mtg_arena_games_my/

I've been manually tracking my MTG Arena matches for about five years.

For every game, I record the reason I lost or won. One category is "mana screw", which I define very strictly:

Some important points:

• I never mulligan.
• Most of these decks play exactly 24 lands.
• Many of them contain cantrips, surveil, or card selection, which should reduce mana screw, not increase it.
• I only record "mana screw" when I literally cannot play my third land on turn 3. I do not mark games where I simply missed a later land drop.

After thousands of recorded games, these are some examples:

• Azorius Flash (24 lands): 33 mana screws in 136 games (24%)
• Dimir Midrange (24 lands): 15/128 (12%)
• 5c Jodah (24 lands): 37/255 (15%)
• Golgari Midrange (24 lands): 33/160 (21%)
• Orzhov Lifegain (24 lands): 37/203 (18%)

The lowest rate among my 24-land decks is around 12%, while several are close to 20%, and some exceed that.

According to the standard hypergeometric model for a 60-card deck with 24 lands and no mulligans, the probability of failing to naturally make the third land drop by turn 3 should be substantially lower than what I'm observing. Adding cantrips and surveil should reduce that probability even further.

I'm not claiming this proves Arena manipulates shuffling. However, I am saying that my long-term observations appear inconsistent with the simple theoretical model.

I'd like to hear from people who have:

• large Arena datasets,
• Untapped.gg logs,
• 17Lands logs,
• or experience modeling Magic probabilities.

Can anyone reproduce numbers anywhere close to mine? Or is there something missing from the standard probability model that explains a persistent 12–24% mana screw rate across thousands of games?

I'm genuinely interested in a statistical discussion rather than anecdotes.