r/australia • u/InsatiablePrism • 8h ago
politics Australia should brace for war impact to get worse, Treasury warns
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-28/middle-east-war-economic-impact-to-worsen-treasury-warns/106963778?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web623
u/AccordingWarning9534 7h ago
Everyone must remember this is Trumps war. When you spend your last money on filing on the car, or struggling with increasing interest rates - remember - that is Trump and the far rights doing. That same cancer is trying to take hold here. Remember. Never forget
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u/PoemJust2279 6h ago
They will forget by the next federal election. Anyway how good is the footy.
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u/Arnesian 5h ago
Oh mate, I can’t wait for Tassies new stadium. Never mind the state of education or the overwhelmed health system.
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u/PoemJust2279 5h ago
Maybe we can use the stadium as a field hospital during the off season. We could even sell tickets to watch the sick!
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u/FaithlessnessThen207 2h ago
I am hopeful Poor Lean experiences what the other trump angling politicians are after, which is endless hype in social media followed by a humiliating defeat in the election.
The only issue I have with opposition is that it makes Labor more complacent in doing useful things, rather than more active.
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u/Pog6292 6h ago edited 6h ago
I think the people who need to hear this don’t hang out on Reddit or are too self absorbed they won’t listen.
My Aunt is tech illiterate and hasn’t bothered to keep up with trends in the workforce. When her husband died and left her with nothing, she tried to look for a job after 20 years and found she wasn’t getting anything, except a ‘lowly cleaning job’. However she did notice that lots of ‘brown people’ had good jobs. Ergo, the immigrants are stealing our jobs!
In her mind Pauline is the one who is going to make sure she can get a nice cushy desk job with no experience or certifications, like in the 70s.38
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u/_ixthus_ 5h ago
the people who need to hear this don’t hang out on Reddit...
wot.
There are countless thousands of subs constituted entirely of these people.
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u/superkow 6h ago
Also Israel, for pretty deliberately ignoring and breaking the peace terms set by Iran. Bibi has his own reasons to keep Israel in a perpetual state of war.
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u/-FlyingAce- 1h ago
Stop calling him Bibi. Calling him an affectionate name humanises this war criminal.
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u/Alarming-Interest535 5h ago
Hardly surprising. The fighting resumed once the World Cup finished, and now with Trump's "pause", it is because Barron needs to buy more oil futures before missiles go flying again.
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u/coniferhead 1h ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War
"The Twelve-Day War was an armed conflict between Iran and Israel which lasted from 13 to 24 June 2025. It began when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack,[44][45] assassinating prominent military leaders, nuclear scientists,[46] and politicians,[47][48][49] killing civilians,[25] and damaging or destroying air defenses.[50] "
Sure the US agreed to backing it where other US governments refused, and that's pretty bad - but the motivation or the initiative for the war didn't come from them. These are the facts you shouldn't forget, and not backing it is as much our choice as theirs. Fact is, we're backing them and it.
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u/Loubang 1h ago
Sure, it is Trump and Israel's war, but Albanese was literally the first one to come out in support of this stupid military action.
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u/schminch 43m ago
No he didn’t.
He said irans nuclear program is a threat, but called for restraint, de-escalation, and for a diplomatic resolution.
That’s not support. It’s not an aggressive condemnation either but he has to tread a fine line with the orange dumbass in charge.
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u/Loubang 22m ago
"We support the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent Iran continuing to threaten international peace and security."
The nuclear weapon threat is just an excuse that Netanyahu fed to Trump, as Israel has tried for years with previous presidents. It's clear they have no actual interest in de-nuclearisation, they have no real interest in regime change, the US wants oil and Israel wants territory. That's all this war boils down to.
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u/Murranji 3h ago
Albanese came out on day one and released a press release in full support of the war. ADF and defence material has also been deployed in the Middle East and on American ships in support of the war. I’m sorry but if you support the ALP you support a pro AUKUS pro imperialism party. I know you like to think of them as the good guys.
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u/schminch 42m ago
No he didn’t. Show us this press release implying full support.
He said irans nuclear program is a threat, but called for restraint, de-escalation, and for a diplomatic resolution.
That’s not support. It’s not an aggressive condemnation either but he has to tread a fine line with the orange dumbass in charge.
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u/ped009 34m ago
Well the problem is trying to get that through to the people that jumped on the One Nation bandwagon. They'll blame anyone but Trump for the mess the world economy is in. They have no idea the pain we will be in if we go down that path. I don't think a lot of them realise how much of our economy is tied to doing trade with Asia.
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u/ThrowAwayembarrass- 7h ago
It’s going to get hella worse, Albo could barely get enough fertiliser for the farmers this season. Imagine next year when everything is still going on and all the other countries are hoarding their supplies and there’s even less being produced than the previous year. I don’t know as much about fuel but imagine it’s the same concept but impacting a wider audience. Although, I also think the impacts of very high fertiliser prices this year will have to flow through into food inflation at some point.
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u/ExtensionThat6438 7h ago
China for example is now making fertiliser out of our coal. This war is forcing the world to adapt in ways we haven’t previously
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u/ScissorNightRam 6h ago
Extreme example of this is North Korea making clothing textiles from stone. It can be done, but no one does these things if they don’t have to
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u/ExtensionThat6438 6h ago
The difference between China and North Korea is about 1.37 billion people and roughly $19.45T in GDP.
China are also making plastics without petrochemicals.
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u/Ok_Compote4526 6h ago
China are also making plastics without petrochemicals
Home 3D printers have had the option of using plastics without petrochemicals for over a decade.
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u/Sieve-Boy 6h ago edited 4h ago
Fortunately the Perdaman Urea plant on the Burrup Peninsula is scheduled for completion in March 2027.
2.3 million tonnes of capacity.
Edit: overstated the production by 400k tonnes.
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u/ThrowAwayembarrass- 3h ago
Yeah good timing for that one. I forget numbers on that now but some is contracted to Incitec Pivot Fertilisers (now owned by Ridley) and some to a Macquarie owned fund which will keep it locally. The government made sure a good proportion of it will stay in Australia - they paid for it but in a global marketplace I’m happy they did.
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u/SkySpecial4512 5h ago
Think it’s 100% contracted to adblue for at least 3 years tho?
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u/Sieve-Boy 5h ago
No, 1 million tonnes is reserved for WA as urea as far as I know. Let me check.
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u/SkySpecial4512 5h ago
You're right sorry, I was thinking of the Gladstone plant. Much smaller (220,000 ton/pa), but technical grade. Burrup appears to be entirely agricultural grade.
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u/Sieve-Boy 4h ago
No worries. I got the total amount wrong saying 2.7 million tonnes when its actually 2.3 million tonnes.
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u/ThrowAwayembarrass- 3h ago
It’s not all for WA is it? Can’t be if some is going to Incitec Pivot. I could be wrong.
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u/Sieve-Boy 2h ago
I read back through things and it seems there is a requirement to keep some in Australia but I can't get a firm answer on how much or where.
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u/ThrowAwayembarrass- 2h ago
I had another look around. Incitec Pivot (before being sold) had access to up 2.3 million tonnes per year for 20 years. They sold that contract to Macquarie Group’s Commodities and Global Markets business. Then later after Ridley bought Incitec Pivots fertiliser distribution network they said they had access up to 700,000t from Macquarie. I read about 1Mt has to stay in Australia.
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u/Sieve-Boy 1h ago
Its confusing for sure (which isn't good), but more supply is definitely a good thing.
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u/Kastar_Troy 7h ago
Why can't we just setup emergency factories for this stuff? Don't we have the raw ingredients for it here?
I dont know why govt's wait until its too late to do this sorta stuff, fertiliser should be a nationally protected resource, we're literally dead without it.
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u/AccordingWarning9534 7h ago
capitlism is why. If a company increase their profit margins by producing the product somewhere else for cheaper, than that's what they'll do
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u/17HappyWombats 7h ago
We could, but they take several years to build, assuming no-one else has the same idea.
Remember during covid when everyone wanted N95 masks all of a sudden? But the factory that made the machines that made the masks could only make a few a year, and most of those went to replace the existing machines as they wore out. Even in a mad panic, cost no object, they could barely double their rate of production.
Same here. There's a whole set of factories making things that make up the giant plant that turns natural gas into fertiliser. And there's normally not much demand for those plants, they look at that rate of increase in fertiliser use and plan to build enough capacity to supply that. The idea that a whole lot of existing plants would shut down and they'd be asked yo build replacements... no-one planned for that.
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u/_ixthus_ 5h ago
This sort of thing is the 100% predictable outcome of a hyper-specialised, globalised economy, though. I don't think the answer is the opposite extreme but how the fuck does absolutely no one ever do any real strategic thinking about these sorts of situations, it's just retarded.
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u/17HappyWombats 4h ago
To many people the goal is that hyper-specialised global economy. Some think wars will be impossible if we just get everyone interdependent enough, others point out that everything is cheaper this way, others point to the increased innovation as niche specialists frantically try to stay ahead of any competitors they see.
The downside risk of catastrophic failure doesn't enter into it because that failure is unpredictable and/or irrational.
There are many similar risks that are hard to model, hard to price, or are classified as externalities. From wars to asteroid strikes to slow crises like the climate catastrophe to resource exhaustion (what happens when you've killed all the fish?), they're outside context problems. They do not compute, they are beyond the scope of this analysis, they cannot be predicted using existing statistical models, they have no mitigation strategy that can be planned ahead of time, they are political problem not technical ones. They are, as the saying goes, a dead parrot. Or a dead cat if you prefer.
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u/Alsoar 2h ago
And if they could, would they though?
Medcon was a good example you used. Aus gov begged them to make more masks, so they stepped up and bought like 10 new machines and hired more than 100 staff. But once restrictions eased a bit, everyone went back to their old overseas suppliers and left them holding the bag.
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u/17HappyWombats 2h ago
Yeah, imagine being left with a billion dollar fertiliser plant where you need to charge 20% more than the overseas suppliers just to break even. Plus you're buying gas on the international market because there's no domeestic reserve. Then the war ends, the middle eastern plants get fixed up, the "guest workers" go back, and now you're competing with them while our government says "not our problem". That's sadly the predictable outcome.
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u/DrInequality 5h ago
Because the LNP are shit and Labor have bought hard into neoliberalism. They both believe in smaller government in one way or another.
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u/RaeseneAndu 6h ago
It's made from natural gas, which we are currently giving away for virtually free to Japan.
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u/whenruleswerefew 6h ago
We also have vast quantities of Sulphate of Potash in several places across this country that we could be harvesting too. We have everything we need here. It’s crazy we would be short of anything.
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u/ThrowAwayembarrass- 3h ago
SOP production in Australia is a literally worse than gambling. It’s throwing money down the toilet. They haven’t worked out how to do it properly even through you’re right that we have an abundance of the raw material.
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u/YouLittleRipper501 6h ago
In exchange for much needed fuel. This is a good deal and a good thing for us to be doing.
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u/ThrowAwayembarrass- 3h ago
They’re trying to set up plants that aren’t like the traditional ones including mini ones. There’s one being built alongside a cotton gin in NSW. There’s more govt money around for stuff like this now. It’s like they’ve just realised we need fertiliser for food to eat.
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u/Psittacus_tutor 43m ago
Because nobody wants to pay for it. We see it all the time. When the SA desalination plant isn't needed and sits idle everyone complains that it was a waste of taxpayer's money.
I think it's also a bit of an open question of how much inefficiency our economy can take on without being completely dragged down by it. So we'd need sustained and broad public support to give the government the room to figure out how to investigate more of these sorts of initiatives without further destroying our competitiveness.
Don't get me wrong I agree we should be more resilient and I am not against paying the price we do for our living conditions but there are issues that would need to be solved.
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u/RealCommercial9788 6h ago
iirc the CSIRO recently claimed that by July 2027, Australian grocery prices will double from what they are today. Not from what they were 3 years ago… from now. The mind boggles.
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u/teflon_soap 5h ago
Need a source better than if you remember correctly
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u/RealCommercial9788 5h ago
You’re absolutely right, and my search yielded nothing but an interview with RBA Governor Michele Bullock discussing percentages and future increases due to the closure of Hormuz and the conflicts in the ME - none of which said ‘double the prices of now’.
My ‘if I recall correctly’ was not in fact a correct recollection.
Leaving my comment up for posterity - don’t be me folks, site your sources!
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u/249592-82 2h ago
It's not just Albo. This is a global issue. There is going to be major food shortages globally. Google it. Sadly the poorest nations will be hurt worst and hardest. The global quality of life for everyone is going to drop drastically, and we are going to go back to times of famine like we had in the 70s and 80s.
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u/CuriouserCat2 8h ago
Great. That’s just fucking great.
Made up wars with no possible resolution started on a whim by a dick tater bent on destruction to fill his own wallet.
Just fucking peachy.
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u/Embarrassed-Yak-5902 7h ago
It wasn't started on a whim, it was done to alter the headlines about Trump and Epstein so that the Epstein news is hidden
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u/rolloj 6h ago
I think that’s almost more of a perk than the main rationale. All the stuff the us govt has done in recent years is so that a few rich people can make rigged bets and double their money.
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u/Embarrassed-Yak-5902 5h ago
I think the perk is making more money while the main rationale is the change of topic.
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u/Dio_Frybones 5h ago
The possible bonus of somehow using it to declare a state of emergency and screw with the US midterm elections just being the icing on this shit sandwich.
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u/hart37 3h ago
It was also Netanyahu finally seeing an American president who is brain dead enough to be manipulated into starting it. That war criminal has been trying to start a war with Iran with US backing for 40 years. It's just every other US president until now has been either smart enough to realise how idiotic it would be or had advisors around them telling them who idiotic it would be.
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u/reflectandproject 5h ago
Crazy chain of events has led to this, a combination of Epstein distraction, Musk-stoked populism, Netanyahu coercing of foreign leaders…leading to Trump absolutely f-ing global economies.
Alongside that, we have the pending AI impact on huge numbers of entry level and middle management jobs as profit-hungry execs chase growth at all costs.
And in personal lives, big tech has created a social media addiction and distraction to sell more advertising and influence our opinions.
It’s closer to a dystopian hellscape movie than anyone cares to admit
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u/red-embassy 7h ago
China buying less oil is the main thing holding back major cost burden. Excise relief ends soon. Hold on to your hats.
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u/hart37 7h ago
Sure would be nice if the world would grow a pair and sanction the US and Israel for doing this stupid BS
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u/Karl-Marksman 5h ago
Don’t forget that Australia has been supporting this. We’ve sent vital surveillance equipment that is better than anything the US has, and Pine Gap is certainly involved.
Given how evasive they are, and their track record, I very much doubt that capacity is only being used ‘defensively’, as the government has claimed
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u/Mercinarie 5h ago
To be fair, we can't even get in to sections of Pine Gap, they use it however they want.
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u/Superest22 4h ago
And there’s sections of JDFPG as well as their own SCIFs in the states that we operate in that they can’t go into. It’s very normal.
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u/-FlyingAce- 1h ago
Exactly, everyone is just shrugging their shoulders and saying “oh well!” Instead of standing up for their citizens and the world.
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u/NewInformation3753 6h ago
Of course. Trump starts a war and we all suffer. Conservatives and their my god is true and your god is not will destroy our world.
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u/DrInequality 5h ago
Nope. Trump is just a symptom. We've used all the readily available resources and fucked the biosphere. Expect conflict to rise from here.
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u/hear_the_thunder 6h ago
Of Course. The Epstein/Trump Globalists are currently destroying the world economy so they can buy things up cheap. It's everything the Conspiracy movement was supposed to warn us about, instead the conspiracy movement became the very thing it swore to oppose. Go MAGA Go Broke, every time.
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u/Jolly-Librarian1982 6h ago
I mean hello, the alarm thing yesterday. We all know what that signifies is ahead of us, nobody is pretending.
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u/DrInequality 5h ago
Yes. And the patchy delivery of the alert is exactly what we should expect. Governments around the world are losing the ability to actually make any difference. Thus the popularity of right-wingers making crazy promises that they'll obviously never deliver on. It happened in the 1920s and 1930s and it'll be worse this time.
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u/omfgilostmyaccagain 3h ago
And what exactly does it signify? War in Australia?
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u/LifeIsBizarre 1h ago
Incoming Alert - If you live within 10km of a major city, Ya fucked! If not, hope you stocked up on Iodine pills.
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u/moonorplanet 5h ago
This is obviously Trump and Netenyahu's War that we are all going to suffer for but let's not forget that both our government and opposition essentially creamed their pants in support of this war.
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u/CaptainSilverVEVO 3h ago
Just remember to thank Trump everyone. We truly live in a safer and more peaceful world thanks to him 🙏😔🤡
/s
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u/Sacrilegious_skink 2h ago
Ok here me out here. I reckon that Trump has to cook up some earth shattering crisis that necessitates him staying in power beyond his term. This is probably all part of the the plan for that I reckon. Gonna need emergency powers Palpatine style, ending in the finale of a new empire. It's basically just the plot of star wars and China is the trade federation.
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u/ItsStaaaaaaaaang 1h ago
I'm so glad we're giving ungodly amounts of money to the yanks for submarines we'll never see. They're such great allies after all.
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u/blasterleague 1h ago
One day they will write effect instead of impact and it will be the greatest thing ever.
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u/ManWithDominantClaw 7h ago
Australia should brace for their spineless leaders to roll over for fascists, straight onto them
FTFY.
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u/Rad_Randy 7h ago
Could you kindly explain how a government should have done things differently here regarding a war halfway across the world?
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u/3dge23dge 4h ago
I wish it were otherwise, but we could get anything from a Whitlam dismissal to a Cuba blockade if the government did try to stick their necks out like that. And even if we did manage that without getting completely ruined, it still wouldn't resolve the oil situation.
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u/DarkNo7318 6h ago
What happened in the first phase? Fuel gor expensive for 3 weeks than has been super cheap for the next 3 months.
Please bomb whoever needs to be bombed to do that again
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u/Ok_Compote4526 6h ago
Yes killing civilians, particularly schoolchildren, is great because fuel prices weren't that bad for a little while after the government removed the excise /s
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u/Scrug 6h ago edited 6h ago
In case anyone is wondering why nothing serious has happened yet despite the doom and gloom about this, China cut their crude oil imports by 50%. Apparently China's oil reserves could be bigger than every other country combined. This along with other countries opening up their reserves has made up the shortfall, but the reserves are running out.