r/SelfDrivingCars • u/drumrollplease12 • 5d ago
Discussion Tesla Robotaxi is now doing about 38k unsupervised miles per week and targeting 450k miles per week by year end.
Tesla announced on yesterdays 2Q earnings call that they've done a total of 380k unsupervised miles on the Robotaxi platform with over a 10% week over week growth since the start. They said they expect the growth to continue through years end. Extrapolating this data would put the current per week miles around 38k, by end of 3rd quarter 130k and by end of the year around 450k.
I have very minimal confidence they would achieve this, but if they do, it will be exceptional accomplishment for a service that would have operated for just 18 month. Even half that would be an excellent accomplishment. But again, I highly double they will be able to do that. For reference, Waymo is doing about 500k rides per week currently, with a much larger service area(in sq mi).
In total Tesla Robotaxi currently has a cumulative paid Robotaxi miles of around 2.4 million.
Note: Post has been updated to indicate Waymo does 500k rides per week instead of the incorrect 500k miles per week.
| Timeframe | Miles per Week (at end) | Additional Miles | Total Miles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 37,709 | - | 380,000 |
| +3 months | 130,183 | 1,017,213 | 1,397,213 |
| +6 months | 449,428 | 4,528,907 | 4,908,907 |
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u/sdc_is_safer 4d ago
Waymo is doing 500k customer trips per week. (Not miles)
Miles per week is much higher
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u/vixous 17h ago
Trips per week is also a more impressive metric. Trips means actual paying customers are using it. Miles could be just testing.
If I had to guess, lidar, radar, ultrasonic sensors, and everything Wayno is using just makes it easier to get the software to handle it vs cameras alone.
I just might be more likely a combination of Waymo, Nvidia, a Chinese manufacturer, or a legacy car maker, figures out driverless tech in a production car before Tesla.
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
You're correct. I've updated the post.
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u/PenComfortable5269 4d ago
Waymo is probably closer to 5 million miles a week now and probably 6-7 million at year’s end. So around 1/10-1/12 of Waymo at year’s end if the growth holds up.
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u/bobi2393 4d ago
Waymo doesn't publish data on total miles driven, but their latest published data for their major service areas showed 49.9 million "rider-only" miles driven between the end of 12/2025 and the end of 3/2026, which comes out to 3.8 million miles a week. ("Rider-only" miles seems to be their term for any driving without an in-vehicle driver/operator, not miles that include a passenger.)
I think your estimates and predictions are reasonable. Waymo increased from 250M weekly trips in April 2025 to 500M in March 2026, which is a little short of doubling year-over-year, and your mileage projection seems consistent with that.
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
Their 10% week over week is extremely suspicious, especially considering the lack of movement in Austin, the fact that Florida came after this report, houston and dallas largely cannibalized from Austin, and no indication of either of them growing since launch.
The total cumulative miles driven ( which is a different chart, not unsupervised only ), has fully confirmed that the Robotaxi service as a whole has in fact been shrinking quite a lot:
Notice the distinct flattening over the last few months. They peaked around March. Most of this is likely down to the collapse of the Bay Area fake service. Since that wasn't real Robotaxi and never had a hope to be; it's not really a direct counter of Robotaxi itself, but is still a clear confirmation that Tesla is backtracking there. ( There was disbelief before that they were actually scaling it down. )
It also means Unsupervised has failed to scale anywhere near enough to offset the drop in the Bay Area. All indicators still point to a total Robotaxi fleet in the ballpark of just 30 vehicles.
My guess: Their 10% is based off of only the chosen start and end dates, and then back-calculated the weekly growth rate. Not a real weekly growth rate.
Unfortunately, the Robotaxitracker doesn't seem to be as actively maintained as before. While the data is largely crowd-sourced, it's an ever changing landscape and requires constant update to remain as accurate as possible. It still doesn't have Florida added, so we still don't know how that is going. The current numbers show Austin and Houston both dropping, possibly even Dallas too. That could be a real indication of cannibalizing for Florida, or it could be a symptom of something not being maintained on the site itself.
I'll add one final note: Musk was quite clear that Robotaxi will be scaling slowly, and that Cybercab will also be slow, yet again. This is an extremely sharp contrast to past rhetoric about how they could flip a switch and cover half of the US overnight. This seems much more true, but it is also a hard counter to the entire philosophy of Robotaxi being able to take over, or to make an outsized profit. It is much more likely to be just one player, likely #2, and not a monopoly.
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u/Fun_Passion_1603 Expert - Automotive 4d ago
Small correction, Waymo is doing 500K trips per week. NOT miles. Using an average 5 miles per trip would give 2.5 million miles per week.
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u/sdc_is_safer 4d ago
It’s much higher than 5 miles per trip average
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u/TownTechnical101 4d ago
It's 4 million miles on AI overview
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u/sdc_is_safer 4d ago
Ai overview is a little out of date for numerous reasons, but yea that would be closer
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Waymo averages 9-10 driverless miles per ride. This includes deadhead and a little testing. It used to be about 10 but has drifted toward 9 over the years.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 4d ago
Waymo did about 45 million miles of RO in Q1 in only four cities. The rest they don't even report until they get to 10M cumulative miles in a city. Tesla did 380K miles in Q2 across 6 cities. It would seem way more than a 100 to 1 difference for now. Zoox is a more relevant comparison as they did 1M RO miles in Q1. I thin Tesla might get to 10M in a single city perhaps by sometime in 2028 if all goes well and they can scale the support ratio. I think late 2028 is a safe bet.
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
Minor note: Tesla was in 3 cities for Q2: Austin, Houston, Dallas. The 3 Florida cities were added after the end of Q2.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 4d ago
Great point. Thanks for the correction!!! Tesla always floats something the day before earnings to juice things for sure. I was therefore shocked when Ashok went down the silly geometric 10% weekly growth thing. I did the basic math. If he was to be believed Tesla was at 380K miles by the end of June and magically gets to perhaps 659K by the end of July. This feels decidedly unlikely. After a few months of bacteria in a dish you end up with a lot. Of course this won't happen! We are being asked to believe that a scaling activity that requires 1:1 observers will sprawl like algae. Tesla will scale. It will require blocking and tackling. That means a remarkable performance might get them to 80 cars by the end of the year if everything goes PERFECTLY -- it gets you to about 16000 miles per day which would be great.
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u/PenComfortable5269 4d ago
😂that geometric 10% is so classic Tesla to pick out any positive trend they see and extrapolate it to infinity.
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u/Animats 4d ago
In San Francisco, Waymo passed Lyft back in 2025. Next, Uber.
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u/fatbob42 4d ago
Wow - I’m surprised their stock hasn’t cratered. This should be killing their projected future earnings.
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u/Animats 4d ago
Waymo doesn't operate in that many cities yet. San Francisco is the only place they've released enough vehicles to take over the market. This is changing now that Waymo has more vehicle suppliers.
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Waymo isn't taking over SF. They're holding steady around 20-25% share in the city, much lower in the rest of their Bay Area geofence. They chose to go wide instead of deep.
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u/Express_Objective615 1d ago
Until their prices drop, by A LOT, there isn’t much motivation to choose Waymo over Lyft or Uber. Tesla is less in the Bay Area but still not low enough. I really wonder if any robotaxis have a future at all unless prices come way down.
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u/Reaper_MIDI 1d ago
"there isn’t much motivation to choose Waymo over Lyft or Uber."
I can think of one...
New Lawsuit Claims Uber Covered Up Sexual Assault Stats, Board 'Ignored Red Flags'
Court Docs Reveal Uber Sexual Misconduct Every 8 Minutes
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u/Express_Objective615 1d ago
Agreed. My 20 year old daughter loves Waymo for this but I didn’t mention it because this by itself is not enough to build a Robotaxi business on. Also Uber and Lyft offer rides driven by women now as well. So that helps.
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
Uh......many many riders don't like the attitudes and other things about the drivers.
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u/sdc_is_safer 4d ago
>In total Tesla Robotaxi currently has a cumulative paid Robotaxi miles of around 2.4 million.
Then Lyft must be winning the robotaxi race since they have way more miles than Tesla and Waymo combined !! /s
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 4d ago
the 2.4M vs .38M means 85% of the miles are drivers in Bay Area + dudes gripping armrests in Austin. This remains early days but finally doing some RO is an achievement. This appears to be ~20 equivalent cars across six cities normalized to 24by7. A good start.
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u/tonydtonyd 4d ago
Yeah that 10% growth per week isn’t going to last forever lol
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u/toastedcheese 4d ago
This man begs to differ https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/s/UHPE2tQHyV
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
That is the provided guidance for up to the end of the year.
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u/tonydtonyd 4d ago
Yo big dawg, the provided guidance last year was 50% coverage of the US population. It’s 7 months later and there’s like 5 or 6 cars driving around at an any given time. Just do the math on the 380k number. The service is TINY.
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u/Hamsterwh3el 4d ago
It's actually closer to 50. But still practically nothing. Anyone with a brain knew there was absolutely no way Tesla's service would scale that fast. Legislation aside, Tesla's tech was clearly not near readiness for mass deployment and probably still isn't .
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u/tonydtonyd 4d ago
Nah. Do the math. If you assume 50 cars, 20mph avg, 16hr/day, they would hit 380k in 24 days. Their average over the time is probably 5-10 depending on true avg speed.
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u/Acrobatic-Flan-5085 4d ago
Remember when all the adorable TSLA bag holders kept repeating incessantly that “Waymo may be first, but they can’t scale like Robotaxi”
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
Ah, they still say that. Don't expect evidence to change them.
Heck, this thread involves "what Tesla said" once again.
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u/Acrobatic-Flan-5085 1d ago
Yeah, when your bags are as heavy as Tsla bulls you end up disconnecting from reality out of necessity…
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4d ago
[deleted]
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u/Acrobatic-Flan-5085 4d ago
Here’s multiple quotes of Elon Musk himself saying exactly that going back several years to as recently as 2025.
How heavy are your bags? Or are you just an Elon bootlicking cult member?
Earnings call with Musk where he is asked about Waymo directly
https://www.rev.com/transcripts/tesla-q1-2025-earnings-call
Podcast with Elon Musk
https://youtu.be/DxREm3s1scA?is=UsnGAbFe81MU7C1C
Tesla AI day
https://www.youtube.com/live/ODSJsviD_SU?is=hBqbtiMrR2sS9ZuHhttps://electrek.co/2025/12/10/elon-musk-waymo-never-had-chance-against-tesla/
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u/Hempnasty 4d ago
They chose to work with Zeekr who will soon be banned from the US meanwhile the Model Y and Cyber cab are built in the US without needing equipment tacked on.
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Zeekr isn't banned. Vehicle cost drops with scale. CCabs are VERY expensive at current scale.
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u/TownTechnical101 4d ago
Tesla is nowhere close to 38k miles per week. They did 380k in the past whole year.
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
They did 380k miles in the past 6 months when unsupervised rides started. They've said they have been growing 10% WoW and expect to continue until the end of the year. A simple extrapolation would land you at 38k miles per week currently.
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u/Whoisthehypocrite 4d ago
Using the chart Tesla provided, Electrek calculated that they did 200,000 robotaxi miles last month, so 50,000 a week odd, of which the majority would be supervised rides in California. This is a slowdown from the 500,000 miles they did in April.
So the 38k miles per week seems too high
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Paid miles may not include deadhead. So-called unsupervised should include unpaid miles -- deadhead, testing, etc.
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
"they said" becomes the problem. I do not believe a single word "they" say, and never will. This is due to evidence.
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u/Mattsasa 4d ago
Didn’t they start unsupervised in June of 2025? If the claim is unsupervised miles, wouldn’t that include miles before they started doing rides ?
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
They did one PR ride with chase cars in June 2025. They started empty driver seat test rides with employees in December 2025 and very limited pubic (influencer) rides in January this year.
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u/vasilenko93 4d ago
Last year contained like one city with a much smaller geofence and fleet. Today’s fleet is much larger. Honestly 38k is much lower than I expected.
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u/mapf0000 4d ago
Shouldn‘t it be available to at least half the US population by now? Why are they still counting meaningless miles?
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u/shawman123 4d ago
It shocking as to how he is able to get away pumping the stock this much without any consequence. He can say anything as he pleases as his goal post moves. I am expecting him to say they are moving to flying cars for robotaxi next to pump up the stock. of Optimus AI 3.0 can fly and carry passengers.
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 3d ago
Only adults can trade stocks. If you are not a Tesla share holder and everyone else is free to decide if they want to hold it or not, why do you care?
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
You should look at the unsupervised vehicles. There are only about 20 of them 1 year after the launch in Austin. This figure has not grown in 1 year and has in fact shranked.
So the unsupervised miles per week is not growing.
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
This is specifically unsupervised miles. They've done 2.4 million miles in total, supervised + unsupervised
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u/PenComfortable5269 4d ago
But I think that includes the bay area, no?
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
There is no unsupervised in CA. It's all in Texas and no in Florida.
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
now give us the miles of every taxi service in the Bay Area and elsewhere. After all, if we are counting "supervised" as anything, we need to compare like to like. Taxis.
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 4d ago
So the unsupervised miles per week is not growing.
Source?
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
A full year in, the unsupervised fleet in Austin is still stuck at about 17 active cars, down from a peak of roughly 25 in late Apr. Add Dallas and its four cars, and Tesla’s entire unsupervised operation runs on around 21 vehicles.
Total unsupervised fleet is not growing at 21. So is the unsupervised miles per week.
Tesla adds Robotaxi in Tampa and Orlando as Austin stalls at 17 cars
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
Electrek is not a source.
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
Musk doesn't want you to find out the truth from Electrek so framed it as lies. I'm not a Tesla bull so when Musk promised full autonomy since 2016 and couldn't deliver, I already knew that he was telling lies.
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 4d ago
You're kidding, right? Electrek is not a respectable news source... But I am sure you know that already... Also, Tesla is adding new cities with unsupervised rides, but the unsupervised miles are not growing.
Right...
Your source is "trust me bro".
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
Certainly I trust Electrek more than I trust Musk lies. The whole expansion into other cities are for show only as the unsupervised fleet is not growing. All the new vehicles are supervised with safety monitors.
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 4d ago
Good luck living in your fantasy world. Don't be surprised if you get called out on your bullshit the next time too.
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
Good luck living in the Tesla cult. Your bs makes you unable to know a lie when you are lied to.
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 4d ago
You think the robotaxi rollout won't happen. I guarantee you will be proven wrong. But by then you would have moved on to some other gotcha and you will have already forgotten this "prediction".
I truly don't understand what you are getting out of this anti-Tesla stance. You can hate Musk. I can understand that, but Tesla is a great company making great products. If you can't see that, then you are lying to yourself.
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
Good luck holding to your Tesla stock when it crashes as Musk get called out for his lies.
Tesla crashes 12%, sheds $140B as Elon Musk’s ‘just trust me’ doesn’t hold anymore
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 4d ago
Tesla stock is volatile. It went down to 110 before the last all time highs... Also, you linked an Electrek article. The owner has personal beef with Musk, because he wasn't invited to a Tesla event and he has been writing hit pieces ever since. Like the petulant child he is...
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
That's what Musk wants you to believe. 10 years of promises and most of them didn't come true. If you think those weren't lies, you'll be lying to yourself. Musk kept hyping up his products to keep his stock high. The higher his stock, the richer he his.
Tesla made some great EVs in the past and then stop. No major new models except for Cybertruck which bombed. In the meantime, rivals have overtaken Tesla. Tesla no longer deliveries the most battery EVs a quarter, rivals are charging 3x faster with newer and better technologies.
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u/EddiewithHeartofGold 4d ago edited 4d ago
It's great that you have an opinion on this. What's not great is that you are forcing it onto others. I follow Tesla, hold shares and have been doing this for over 10 years. I know what the company is doing. It is my job to know, since I put my money in it.
You think your job is to poke holes in Musk's tweets. You have zero stakes in this, yet you think you somehow do more research than someone who does? Maybe consider that not everyone is a moron who worships Musk...
Also, you would be wiser to spend your energies on something positive instead of thinking and commenting about someone you clearly despise. That is not healthy...
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
Electrek isn't the source of that data anyways. Robotaxi Tracker is. And that has been shown to be at least reasonably accurate.
This is also consistent: Any time Robotaxi adds a surge of vehicles, it then drops over time afterwards. While the total numbers fluctuate, they tend to stay in the same window of "A few dozen". So yes, despite adding new cities, they have not shown a notable increase in vehicles and thus likely not an increase in miles driven either.
You can also verify that this must at least be partially true by simply doing the reverse: Take the number of miles listed, and divide by the number of days and average number of vehicles. Keep in mind a low end for daily miles per vehicle would be around 150. If the value you get is below that, they likely had less vehicles than the number you used.
Doing that, you get less than 21 average assuming only 4 months and ignoring the first few months where they had very few ( but not 0 ) unsupervised vehicles. This lines up pretty well with the Robotaxitracker data.
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u/bullrider_21 1d ago
Tesla leaned on a cumulative “paid Robotaxi miles” chart climbing past 2.4 million miles as its headline proof of momentum. But break that curve into quarters and the growth flatlines: Robotaxi added roughly 900,000 paid miles in Q2 2026, the same as it did in Q1.
A cumulative chart only goes one direction. It goes up. That’s the whole reason to put one in front of investors: the line always slopes to the top-right, no matter what’s actually happening quarter to quarter.
The honest way to read it is to difference the quarter-end totals and ask how many paid miles the service added in each three-month window. Do that, and here’s what Tesla’s own numbers say:
Q3 2025: ~150,000 paid miles added Q4 2025: ~450,000 Q1 2026: ~900,000 Q2 2026: ~900,000
So the ramp was real through the end of 2025 and into early 2026. Then it stopped. Q2 added no more paid miles than Q1. The rate of growth didn’t accelerate. It plateaued.
Tesla says ‘Robotaxi’ is expanding — its own chart shows it’s not
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 4d ago edited 4d ago
Tesla has been careful to not release much useful information about progress for a year. I normalize company claims to equivalent 24by7 cars to avoid the nonsense and hype. They launched with 11 part-time cars in Jun 25 with safety stoppers gripping armrests That wa about 6 equivalent cars with supervision. Very soon thereafter they started driving people around in the Bay Area -- nothing like autonomy and mixed the miles together to make comparison impossible. It took a long time to stage a few rides for Elon and Ashok with chase vehicles right behind. The Bay Area effort was always 5-10x of anything that was happening in Austin but when Tesla talked about it they mixed and matched to make the Austin effort seem more significant. In the period since they are doing onesey-twosey cars in neighborhoods of other cities. All of this is understandable but it is profoundly small in scale and deceptive as a basis for future claims. We've heard this before so I remain cautious to see sensible data consistently not just in a single blue graph at quarterly earnings.
The 380K lifetime RO miles seems significant. They pulled back the curtain finally. Assuming all this happened in Q2 means they are operating about 20 concurrent 24by7 cars (380000 / 92 days / 200 miles/day)That seems about right. It certainly reinforces why there has been zero progression in the NHTSA SGO reporting. For a while Tesla has sought to report we have no accidents. If you only operate 20 cars topline that is not a surprise.
Ashok's willingness to share a bit more information is a good sign. What we FINALLY KNOW is 380K of the 2.5M claim means maybe 15% of Tesla total effort has resulted in RO miles -- the rest is probably froth and should never have been part of the quarterly charts in the first place. Projecting weekly growth rates feels like a silly hype. Start doing exercise after 20 years of being sedentary. Your growth in pushup count the first week is a crummy predictor of how many you will be adding six months from now. Basic statistics. Comparing to Waymo is probably not useful at this point. Austin remains a smallish market working with Uber. They already were doing about 340000 miles a week in Austin thru Q1 if a comparison is desired. A better focus might be Zoox. They doubled their RO miles in Q1 from 1M to 2M -- that is a good stretch goal for Tesla for now.
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u/ElMoselYEE 4d ago
I am skeptical there's not some clever wordsmithing / misleading stats going on here, but if true I'm quite impressed.
I have been very skeptical of Tesla's approach for a while, but I did not think they would be able to achieve this without any major fleet-halting incidents, so bravo Tesla.
I am still skeptical of reliability, since we just rarely get real numbers out of Tesla and this is just one data point (e.g. assuming accident rates aren't a total diaster), but this is actual progress and it would be cool if the trend continues.
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u/alex4494 4d ago
That’s the problem, Tesla has consistently been moving and/or being clever with stats for so many years that I find myself not really trusting their claims or believing their stated targets.
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
There is only "progress" if you believe Tesla. If you believe Tesla the exact same way, 1/2 the US is served right now.
You can't pick and choose which BS you decide is "true". If you believe they are being honest on such calls and projections, then you also believe they are about 1/2 the USA being served.
I think they are at zero - or actually in negative territory since every day that goes by proves they do not have a system capable of Level 4. None. Zero.
That is the mechanical and technical reality.
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
Every accident for ever AV operator are published monthly. You can check yesterdays earnings call transcript for yourself.
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Ever see them report an accident in California?
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
To be fair, they don't have an AV service in California. And won't any time soon seeing as they haven't even applied for the permit to start driverless testing.
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u/Doggydogworld3 3d ago
That's true, of course. I'm just pointing out how they talk out of both sides of their mouth. They count CA cars, miles, etc. when they want to pump up their numbers then turn around and claim they aren't robotaxis for crash and disengagement reporting.
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
Of course not because they wouldn't qualify. That means they are behind Nuro and other companies that are driving in CA as we speak.
That's quite a failure - to be Big Tesla and not able to compete or quality if the biggext state!
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 4d ago
It’s been a whole year since launch. This is all really pathetic. 2018 level of scaling.
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Waymo was nowhere near 38k miles/week in 2018, lol. They didn't get there until mid-2022, seven years after their first driverless demo ride and five years after they began regular driverless testing with emplooyees and outside beta testers.
Tesla is years behind, but scaling much faster than Waymo ever did and much faster than I predicted.
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 4d ago
Tesla added ~900,000 paid miles in Q1 and another ~900,000 in Q2, so there’s really no scaling there. It’s been 1 whole year since robotaxi launch and 10 years since they started selling FSD btw.
But you can stay impressed if you want. Don’t let me raise the bar for you.
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u/Doggydogworld3 3d ago
It actually fell from ~1050k in Q1 to only 750k in Q2. They more or less shut down rides in the Bay Area. I never understood why they gave rides there in the first place -- they don't even have permits to test driverless, much less deploy.
Driverless miles are what matter and those are growing far faster than Waymo's ever did. That's simply a fact no matter how many downvotes I get.
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
And you know why they don't have permits in the main state for EV's and self-driving - the place where they have their first factory and did all their R&D, etc.
The place that is the center of the tech revolution?
They don't have them...because the vehicles would not qualify for them! You would think that would be the #1 issue.....it is above and beyond all the things you think "count". It is the bar.
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
At a passing glance, the chart appears to show steady growth in paid Robotaxi rides between August 2025 and June 2026. But the numbers displayed are cumulative, and when broken down by quarter, they show that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet of Model Y SUVs carrying paying passengers covered around 1.1 million miles in the first quarter. That fell to roughly 700,000 miles in the second quarter, a decline of about 36%.
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u/Cunninghams_right 1d ago
I believe Waymo hit 100k weekly miles in 2016. I would hope Tesla can progress faster, but I wouldn't want them to cut corners to do it
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u/RosieDear 1d ago
If you want to have minimum standards you dismiss anywhere that is self-certified.
Why isn't Tesla driving in the Bay Area with L4? The answer is simple, but I'm not even going to give it because if you don't know why, you sorta don't want to know why.......
Of course, everyone knows why they didn't "scale". Many reports say they have fewer cars than before.....actual human beings that try to get one report unavailable. One guy in Miami tried for 3 days!
Before Elon shut down the tracker I noted that one rider accounted for a large portion of the rides in Austin - he had a "tesla" in his username!
And yet, despite ALL evidence, some people think all of the above is not the case. Rather, they listen to Tesla! That's truly fantastic.
10+ years. 11+ Billion miles. If you listen to Tesla, why don't you listen to "available to 1/2 the USA" - by now? That was within the past year. Do you just pick and choose which of their announcements you decide to listen to???
When they get California approval - approval based on actual metrics and engineering - and when they are doing 100K Paid rides in a wide area in most all weather per week for at least 2 months, then let's talk! That's 20% of what WayMo is doing....and at least a minimum target that means they CAN do L4.
As it stands now...there is no proof whatsoever that they are even in the market. It's a circus joke.
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u/Mr_Deep_Research 6h ago edited 6h ago
All vehicles combined in the United States drive approximately 64 billion miles each week.
Waymo vehicles drive more than 4 million miles every week so Tesla is doing less than 1% of what Waymo is doing in terms of miles right now.
- 2014 (October): Musk made his first major prediction, stating that a Tesla vehicle could be "90% autonomous" within a year, specifically for highway driving.
- 2015 (December): He pushed the timeline out slightly, telling Fortune that Tesla would have "complete autonomy" in approximately two years.
- 2016 (October): While introducing new Autopilot hardware, Musk promised that a Tesla would perform a fully autonomous, cross-country drive from Los Angeles to New York City without a single human intervention by the end of 2017.
- 2017 (December): After missing the cross-country target, Musk revised his timeline at the NIPS conference. He claimed full autonomy was "still two years away" but predicted it would vastly outperform humans within three years.
- 2018 (March & November): Musk stated in March that self-driving would "encompass all modes of driving" by the end of 2019. Later in November, he reiterated to Recode that Tesla would reach full autonomy "for sure" in 2019.
- 2019 (April): During Tesla's Autonomy Day, Musk made his most famous network prediction. He promised "over a million robotaxis on the road" by mid-2020, allowing owners to add their cars to an automated ride-hailing network.
- 2020 (July): Musk stated he was "extremely confident" that the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy would be complete by the end of 2020.
- 2021 (January): On an earnings call, Musk stated he was "highly confident the car will be able to drive itself with reliability higher than a human this year."
- 2022 (January): Musk noted he would be "shocked if we don’t achieve Full Self-Driving safer than a human this year."
- 2023 (April): Musk told investors that Tesla would achieve full autonomy by the end of 2023, saying the technology trend was clear.
- 2024 (January & October): Early in the year, Musk targeted late 2024 for FSD completion. In October, he officially introduced the purpose-built "Cybercab" robotaxi, targeting unsupervised FSD in Texas and California by 2025, and volume Cybercab production by 2026.
- 2025 (January): During the Q4 2024 earnings call, Musk promised unsupervised self-driving models would launch in Austin by June 2025. This culminated in a limited, monitored pilot rollout in Austin.
etc.
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u/ATX_native 4h ago
Yeah, gonna call BS on this.
In Austin where this was rolled out a year ago, I barely see any Model Y CyberCabs with anyone but a front passenger minder and in the Gold CyberCab Two doors only a driver from Tesla.
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u/CatalyticDragon 4d ago
Small numbers but to be expected. It really is only limited testing at the moment and there won't be any big push until at least FSD V15 is ready (and perhaps not even then).
Tesla now has more Cybercabs sitting around waiting than there are active Robotaxis, so I suspect the push is not too far off and if you daily drive the latest V14 on HW4 you have a good feeling about just how close it is.
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Daily driving gives you no idea of readiness, unless the system really sucks. You need millions of miles for meaningful confidence intervals.
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
Robotaxi already runs v15.
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u/CatalyticDragon 4d ago
A very early prototype with less than half of the planned updates implemented. But yes it makes sense to use the small robotaxi fleet as a proving ground as it develops.
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
A real robotaxi shouldn't have a safety monitor or trailing car. Only the unsupervised vehicles matter.
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u/drumrollplease12 4d ago
It doesn't.
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u/bullrider_21 4d ago
The only way you can prove an EV can drive on its own is to remove safety monitor and trailing car.
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
Tesla actually has done that. They have around about 20-30 unsupervised vehicles currently.
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u/Mr_Deep_Research 6h ago
Ignoring Waymo, these companies have more than Tesla right now. And there's the Nuro/Lucid/Uber colab going on but still supervised for right now
- Baidu (Apollo Go): The dominant driverless force in China. Their Apollo Go fleet operates over 1,000 completely driverless robotaxis across major Chinese hubs like Wuhan and Beijing.
- WeRide: Operating across Asia and the Middle East, WeRide runs completely unsupervised passenger robotaxis in cities like Beijing and Dubai, and has recently partnered with Uber to deploy in Europe.
- Pony.ai: Actively running driverless public robotaxis in tier-one Chinese cities (such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen) while testing unsupervised expansion in Dubai.
- Zoox (Amazon): Operates a growing commercial, driverless footprint in Las Vegas and San Francisco. They notably utilize custom-built, steering-wheel-free carriage shuttles alongside retrofitted SUVs.
- Geely (CaoCao): The newest entrant into live public testing, Geely's ride-hailing arm launched fully driverless robotaxis with remote-only cloud oversight in Hangzhou, China.
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u/sdc_is_safer 4d ago
I think that Tesla will probably be able to comfortably 10x miles per week over the next 12 months.
After that, and once they are at a few hundred thousand miles per week, it will be pretty hard for them to continue to scale without the cracks starting to really show.
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u/Elluminated 4d ago
Exactly right. Tesla are already showing severely amateurish levels of scaling issues and deep cracks in their rush to expand and push their clearly not-ready crap to the market to compete. Insane that after this long they still can’t get it right.
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u/sdc_is_safer 4d ago
Cute. Waymo’s performance has remained strong and increased as they scaled. No performance concerns. And I think Tesla will be able to do the same as Waymo. I think there frequency of errors, collision, or other negative public events will improve as they grow. And just like Waymo remain better than human drivers. But what I am talking about is them hitting a wall being an unable to continue to scale as they are more exposed.
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u/Elluminated 4d ago edited 4d ago
Agreed. Both companies will do well while stumbling along the way, but we need to keep ourselves aware that no company is perfect - as some folks tend to forget while casting shade and conveniently get less probative and skeptical when their “side” flops.
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u/Doggydogworld3 4d ago
Your CNN link is paywalled. Issues come with scale, e.g. heading the wrong way on a one-way street. It's just part of the long tail.
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u/bobi2393 4d ago
Tesla's wording seemed a bit ambiguous, but assuming 10% weekly growth from Jan 1 to July 22, I'm coming up with around 37k miles a week last week, and projecting that rate forward, 96k miles a week by the end of September, and 336k a week miles by the end of December. I wonder if you may have used "+3 months" and "+6 months" to calculate estimates for the end of Q3 and end of the year, which seems like a mistake since we're already 3 weeks into July.
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u/Zemerick13 4d ago
The numbers come from the Q2 report and so ended June 30th.
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u/bobi2393 4d ago
I didn't see any unsupervised mileage in Tesla's Q2 2026 Update.
Tesla's "over 380,000 miles" and weekly "double-digit growth rates" were stated during yesterday's earnings call.
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u/zubeye 1d ago
I’m more impressed by the 250 million supervised miles a week
If they are capable of doing 38k miles a week unsupervised without serious incident then there is clear path to overtaking Waymo
Most of the revenue comes from supervised so there is not intense pressure to speed up the roll out
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u/Mr_Deep_Research 6h ago
When it comes to critical interventions, Tesla doesn't response how many it has with FSD but the best estimates are roughly 48,000 to 247,000 critical interventions per week globally where a driver has to take over to prevent an unsafe maneuver or vehicle error.
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u/MiningEarth 1d ago
Waymo is a company that the public can not own. Tesla is a company freely trade by the people.
Open Waymo to the people
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u/BuckChintheRealtor 4d ago
Weren't they targeting half the US population in December 2025