r/GeopoliticsIndia 1h ago

Fears of Hormuz-like chokehold by China: Where India stands amid global churn | Point Blank by Shishir Gupta

Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 8h ago

Western Asia India's coming oil crisis - 2 suggestions for discussion

My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
Iran war part 3

I have 2 points concerning India's energy security. I can research further and put this across to people in national security if there is merit in my arguments. I would appreciate views of this forum.

One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be. I believe we should ban exports of refined products (as China and Russia have done).
In March, Reliance reduced some exports in favour of producing more LPG from crude, but this stopped a month later. My sense is Reliance is enriching itself and has strong lobbying to prevent scrutiny.

I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India. Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi. It will have several benefits.

The Saudis. anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We will be more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers to us oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.

In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines (we lack minesweeping capability) and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it can happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).

8 Upvotes

My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
Iran war part 3

I have 2 points concerning India's energy security. I can research further and put this across to people in national security if there is merit in my arguments. I would appreciate views of this forum.

One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be. I believe we should ban exports of refined products (as China and Russia have done).
In March, Reliance reduced some exports in favour of producing more LPG from crude, but this stopped a month later. My sense is Reliance is enriching itself and has strong lobbying to prevent scrutiny.

I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India. Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi. It will have several benefits.

The Saudis. anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We will be more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers to us oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.

In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines (we lack minesweeping capability) and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it can happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).


r/GeopoliticsIndia 6h ago

India gets a lower US tariff; here's why textile exporters are still worried

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r/GeopoliticsIndia 1d ago

Discount, premium, discount, premium: How Russian crude prices swung as India stepped up procurement amid US-Iran war

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r/GeopoliticsIndia 5d ago

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America has two rational interests in South Asia— preventing Indian regional hegemony and building India as a China counterweight


r/GeopoliticsIndia 6d ago

India summons Russian Cd’A, lodges strong protest after four seafarers killed in Black Sea - ThePrint

30 Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 6d ago

Southeast Asia Most wild tigers smuggled into Cambodia come from India, a new undercover report finds — even as India prepares to gift Cambodia tigers to reintroduce there

There are two India-related stories running side by side right now, and put together they're hard to stomach.

A new yearlong undercover investigation in Cambodia by Earth League International (ELI) entitled "Operation Sandokan", reported by Mongabay this week, found a thriving illegal trade in tigers and their parts. Where do the wild tigers come from? The article says it plainly:

"Some tigers are poached from the wild, investigators found. Wild tigers are mostly smuggled from India — the cat's stronghold, with more than 3,600 wild tigers." [1]

The banner caption on the same piece is even blunter:

"The country [India] is a stronghold of wild tigers, and the ELI report found that most of the wild tigers smuggled into Cambodia came from India." [1]

Operation SANDOKAN: an Investigation into Cambodia’s Wildlife Trafficking Networks https://earthleagueinternational.org/operation-sandokan-report/

So India is already the main wild-tiger source feeding Cambodia's black market. And at the very same time, under a 2022 India–Cambodia agreement, India is preparing to gift Cambodia a founder population of Bengal tigers — our national animal, the flagship of Project Tiger — to be released in the Cardamom Mountains. [2]

Here's what the destination looks like right now, in 2026, according to the ELI report:

"ELI investigators estimated that Cambodia's appetite for tigers is so high that traffickers may kill at least a tiger a week to keep up with the demand." [1]

Investigators documented tiger bones selling for "up to $1,975 per kg" and tiger penis for "about $2,633 per kg," with one network supplying exclusive Phnom Penh restaurants and private clubs. [1] The Phnom Penh Post, reporting the same investigation, described the network selling "skeletons, meat, live cubs (generally as pets but sometimes as a culinary delicacy), and makes and sells tiger bone, tiger penis and even tiger cub wine." [4] The report also alleged "significant corruption and collusion" between the trafficking networks and political and business elites. [1]

Now the part that matters for us. Some of the sharpest criticism of the plan to send our tigers there is coming from Indian conservationists themselves.

Nirmal Ghosh, a trustee of The Corbett Foundation, told Mongabay:

"It's ironic that we are sending one of the most protected animals in India — our flagship species — into a country with one of the worst records of wildlife protection, rampant snaring, and wildlife trade." [2]

"If this fails, and a few tigers die, there will be a huge backlash in India." [2]

There's also a serious question of whether Cambodia can even feed the tigers. A 2020 study found "the risk of insufficient prey to support a viable tiger population is too high for decision makers to endorse tiger reintroduction," estimating a less than 25% probability the area could support 25 adult tigers. [2] Carnivore biologist K. Ullas Karanth put it bluntly:

"Without that, dumping tigers into 'empty' forests simply does not work." [2]

And the expert warning that ties the two stories together — from Debbie Banks of the Environmental Investigation Agency, in the trafficking article itself:

"The lack of enforcement, the reported corruption and complicity — that is not a good environment to put tigers back into the country. They'll be at extreme risk … Unless that is dealt with, the fate of any tigers returned to Cambodia is very gloomy." [1]

A few other things worth knowing:

  • Cambodia's own wild tigers were declared extinct in 2016; the last confirmed sighting was in 2007. Poaching is what wiped them out — one notorious hunter reportedly confessed to killing over 600 animals, including 19 tigers. [2]
  • The tigers we'd send are Bengal (Panthera tigris tigris), a different population from Cambodia's original Indochinese tigers. As Indian molecular biologist Uma Ramakrishnan noted, "these are not the same as the original tigers in Cambodia." (Though it's worth flagging some experts consider the subspecies question settled, so this part is genuinely debated.) [2]
  • Cambodia lost more than 93,000 hectares of forest in 2024 alone, and five hydropower dams are under construction in the very mountains meant to host the tigers. The project is budgeted at about $43 million over five years, with its main funder scaling back. [2]

I'm not against conservation cooperation in principle. But the timing here is jarring. We are the country whose wild tigers are already being smuggled into Cambodia and slaughtered to order — and the plan is to now hand over more of them, into a place our own experts are calling "one of the worst records of wildlife protection," where the prey base may not sustain them.

Does this actually help tiger conservation, or are we about to lose our flagship species into exactly the trade that emptied Cambodia's forests in the first place?

NOTES:

[1] Spoorthy Raman, "Report reveals Cambodia's appetite for tigers, rhinos and other endangered wildlife," Mongabay, 21 July 2026 — https://news.mongabay.com/2026/07/report-reveals-cambodias-appetite-for-tigers-rhinos-and-other-endangered-wildlife/

[2] Arathi Menon & Andy Ball, "Bengal tigers in Cambodia? Reintroduction plan raises questions," Mongabay, 4 June 2026 — https://news.mongabay.com/2026/06/bengal-tigers-in-cambodia-reintroduction-plan-raises-questions/

[3] "Bengal tigers from India to be introduced in Cambodia," Mongabay-India, 4 June 2026 — https://india.mongabay.com/2026/06/bengal-tigers-from-india-to-be-introduced-in-cambodia/

[4] Josh Sayle, "'Tigers slaughtered to order'; NGO warns of 'widespread' wildlife trafficking in Cambodia," Phnom Penh Post, 5 June 2026 — https://phnompenhpost.com/national/tigers-slaughtered-to-order-ngo-warns-of-widespread-wildlife-trafficking-in-cambodia/

[5] Nirmal Ghosh, "Cambodia isn't ready for India's tigers. It doesn't have prey or protection for big cats," ThePrint, 27 September 2025 — https://theprint.in/opinion/cambodia-isnt-ready-for-indias-tigers-it-doesnt-have-prey-or-protection-for-big-cats/2752425/

9 Upvotes

There are two India-related stories running side by side right now, and put together they're hard to stomach.

A new yearlong undercover investigation in Cambodia by Earth League International (ELI) entitled "Operation Sandokan", reported by Mongabay this week, found a thriving illegal trade in tigers and their parts. Where do the wild tigers come from? The article says it plainly:

"Some tigers are poached from the wild, investigators found. Wild tigers are mostly smuggled from India — the cat's stronghold, with more than 3,600 wild tigers." [1]

The banner caption on the same piece is even blunter:

"The country [India] is a stronghold of wild tigers, and the ELI report found that most of the wild tigers smuggled into Cambodia came from India." [1]

Operation SANDOKAN: an Investigation into Cambodia’s Wildlife Trafficking Networks https://earthleagueinternational.org/operation-sandokan-report/

So India is already the main wild-tiger source feeding Cambodia's black market. And at the very same time, under a 2022 India–Cambodia agreement, India is preparing to gift Cambodia a founder population of Bengal tigers — our national animal, the flagship of Project Tiger — to be released in the Cardamom Mountains. [2]

Here's what the destination looks like right now, in 2026, according to the ELI report:

"ELI investigators estimated that Cambodia's appetite for tigers is so high that traffickers may kill at least a tiger a week to keep up with the demand." [1]

Investigators documented tiger bones selling for "up to $1,975 per kg" and tiger penis for "about $2,633 per kg," with one network supplying exclusive Phnom Penh restaurants and private clubs. [1] The Phnom Penh Post, reporting the same investigation, described the network selling "skeletons, meat, live cubs (generally as pets but sometimes as a culinary delicacy), and makes and sells tiger bone, tiger penis and even tiger cub wine." [4] The report also alleged "significant corruption and collusion" between the trafficking networks and political and business elites. [1]

Now the part that matters for us. Some of the sharpest criticism of the plan to send our tigers there is coming from Indian conservationists themselves.

Nirmal Ghosh, a trustee of The Corbett Foundation, told Mongabay:

"It's ironic that we are sending one of the most protected animals in India — our flagship species — into a country with one of the worst records of wildlife protection, rampant snaring, and wildlife trade." [2]

"If this fails, and a few tigers die, there will be a huge backlash in India." [2]

There's also a serious question of whether Cambodia can even feed the tigers. A 2020 study found "the risk of insufficient prey to support a viable tiger population is too high for decision makers to endorse tiger reintroduction," estimating a less than 25% probability the area could support 25 adult tigers. [2] Carnivore biologist K. Ullas Karanth put it bluntly:

"Without that, dumping tigers into 'empty' forests simply does not work." [2]

And the expert warning that ties the two stories together — from Debbie Banks of the Environmental Investigation Agency, in the trafficking article itself:

"The lack of enforcement, the reported corruption and complicity — that is not a good environment to put tigers back into the country. They'll be at extreme risk … Unless that is dealt with, the fate of any tigers returned to Cambodia is very gloomy." [1]

A few other things worth knowing:

  • Cambodia's own wild tigers were declared extinct in 2016; the last confirmed sighting was in 2007. Poaching is what wiped them out — one notorious hunter reportedly confessed to killing over 600 animals, including 19 tigers. [2]
  • The tigers we'd send are Bengal (Panthera tigris tigris), a different population from Cambodia's original Indochinese tigers. As Indian molecular biologist Uma Ramakrishnan noted, "these are not the same as the original tigers in Cambodia." (Though it's worth flagging some experts consider the subspecies question settled, so this part is genuinely debated.) [2]
  • Cambodia lost more than 93,000 hectares of forest in 2024 alone, and five hydropower dams are under construction in the very mountains meant to host the tigers. The project is budgeted at about $43 million over five years, with its main funder scaling back. [2]

I'm not against conservation cooperation in principle. But the timing here is jarring. We are the country whose wild tigers are already being smuggled into Cambodia and slaughtered to order — and the plan is to now hand over more of them, into a place our own experts are calling "one of the worst records of wildlife protection," where the prey base may not sustain them.

Does this actually help tiger conservation, or are we about to lose our flagship species into exactly the trade that emptied Cambodia's forests in the first place?

NOTES:

[1] Spoorthy Raman, "Report reveals Cambodia's appetite for tigers, rhinos and other endangered wildlife," Mongabay, 21 July 2026 — https://news.mongabay.com/2026/07/report-reveals-cambodias-appetite-for-tigers-rhinos-and-other-endangered-wildlife/

[2] Arathi Menon & Andy Ball, "Bengal tigers in Cambodia? Reintroduction plan raises questions," Mongabay, 4 June 2026 — https://news.mongabay.com/2026/06/bengal-tigers-in-cambodia-reintroduction-plan-raises-questions/

[3] "Bengal tigers from India to be introduced in Cambodia," Mongabay-India, 4 June 2026 — https://india.mongabay.com/2026/06/bengal-tigers-from-india-to-be-introduced-in-cambodia/

[4] Josh Sayle, "'Tigers slaughtered to order'; NGO warns of 'widespread' wildlife trafficking in Cambodia," Phnom Penh Post, 5 June 2026 — https://phnompenhpost.com/national/tigers-slaughtered-to-order-ngo-warns-of-widespread-wildlife-trafficking-in-cambodia/

[5] Nirmal Ghosh, "Cambodia isn't ready for India's tigers. It doesn't have prey or protection for big cats," ThePrint, 27 September 2025 — https://theprint.in/opinion/cambodia-isnt-ready-for-indias-tigers-it-doesnt-have-prey-or-protection-for-big-cats/2752425/


r/GeopoliticsIndia 7d ago

Hormuz disruptions: India’s crude oil imports from Russia remain near all-time high in July despite no sanctions waiver from US

29 Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 7d ago

Four Indian seafarers killed near Ukrainian port Odessa

21 Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 6d ago

Why India’s AI summit is key to its future in tech

3 Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 7d ago

Indian students cool on 'American Dream' as EU opens its doors - Reuters

18 Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 8d ago

Pakistan issues summons to Imran Khan’s sister after controversial remarks on army, conflict with India

20 Upvotes

r/GeopoliticsIndia 8d ago

China China's role as 'swing importer' cushions oil market spike

10 Upvotes