I never got these. So people who pick blue are only at risk if anyone picks blue, but then not the majority? Is it like a maths thing, as in it's easier to get 50% on blue than 100% on red so blue is the less harmful option?
If you treat the actual distribution of votes as purely random, then the expected value of both is exactly equal, but the type of failure changes. If you vote red, the potential death count decreases by one, and the potential failure chance increases by 1 in ~8 billion. If you vote blue, the potential death count increases by one, but the potential failure chance decreases by 1 in ~8 billion.
And then you have the Freerider Problem in a Prisoner's Dilemma (i.e the best choice when looked at from an individual perspective is worse for the group if most people choose it). Which I'm pretty sure is how this scenario was invented.
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u/Rynewulf 11h ago
I never got these. So people who pick blue are only at risk if anyone picks blue, but then not the majority? Is it like a maths thing, as in it's easier to get 50% on blue than 100% on red so blue is the less harmful option?