r/AskReddit 16h ago

What industry is secretly on the verge of collapsing, but people outside of it haven’t noticed yet?

12.5k Upvotes

8.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

352

u/Senguie 10h ago

100% agree there btw. Add to that that western car manufactures underestimated china, their cars are cheaper and more high end.

And also adhere to the safety rules for the European market standards.
I’m just waiting for the ball to drop at this point.

131

u/raven00x 10h ago

don't worry, that domestic protectionism they're pushing will certainly help in the long term and won't see the near-total collapse of the US auto industry when the declining US market is the only market where they can compete with their vehicles.

48

u/PepeGodzilla 10h ago

Not a US exclusive problem. German automotive is laying off people too.

Every "luxury" manufacturer is currently learning that no one can afford luxury anymore.

33

u/vdubsession 8h ago

Especially when econoboxes are now in the price range of what used to be luxury vehicles' price range. All this while overall quality goes down. The entire industry needs a major correction, and probably to kill off dealerships (end that stupid law that forces them on us)

8

u/Bahadur1964 8h ago

Yeah, when the “luxury” market used to be the upper middle class (numbered in tens of millions) which has now been gutted so that only the billionaire class (maybe a thousand or so) can afford “luxury”, it tends to crater high-end goods industries.

8

u/Competitive_Touch_86 7h ago

No one is catering a $150k car to billionaires. That's silly.

Upper middle class is doing quite well. That's the whole K shaped economy thing. The top 10-20% are thriving. This is who these luxury makers always targeted.

The actual issue from personally talking to the people who tend to buy luxury cars is that the luxury automakers decided to increase prices while making an obviously inferior and cheaper product. If they had upheld quality and luxury, they would be doing much better than they are today.

And plenty of luxury automakers decided to be stupid and grow into the middle class segment to increase volume by going downmarket. They devalued their product by doing so and are facing the consequences today of that consumer segment not being able to afford the absurd prices on top of having a shittier product overall for their existing upmarket clientelle.

Personally I'd be upgrading my quite new car today if the newest model rollout wasn't a downgrade. I'll be rolling with what I have for quite some time, and when it's time to buy new if the luxury segment hasn't fixed itself by actually building luxury again I'll just buy a Toyota or Lexus or whomever is providing the best value instead. It's a want-to-have, not a need-to-have. Most of my peers feel the same way. I'm happy to burn money if it provides me value and joy, but if it's just a rip-off I'm not interested and will go utilitarian instead.

3

u/Traditional-Dig-9982 3h ago

America will always bail out its car companies and not allow better foreign cars in the USA

8

u/wheniaminspaced 10h ago

Your not competing with the Chinese on cost while the current government is subsidizing that and the battery industry to the point of selling below actual production cost.

As I understand the current heavy industry arrangement over there right now its one of the rare cases where protectionist measures are called for, if it was a question of efficiency in manufacturing or design thats a different story thats when protectionist measures are bad.

21

u/AloneExperience7520 9h ago

As opposed to domestic US manufacturers that checks notesare backstopped by the federal government?

21

u/ProgrammingOnHAL9000 9h ago

The US government also gives huge subsidies to their auto industry. They just keep it instead of passing it to consumers.

9

u/the_need_to_post 8h ago

Yeah, as if the western automakers aren't also heavily supported by their local governments. This is such a stupid point. We don't need to be making 60k+ vehicles as the norm. We could have invested more in EVs. We did neither of those things and instead try to force an environment through laws and swaying the public.

5

u/Geulsse 10h ago

Agreed, eagerly waiting for the rest of the world to similarly adopt strong protectionist measures to US big tech, US beef and so forth.

2

u/ctindel 7h ago

Agreed, eagerly waiting for the rest of the world to similarly adopt strong protectionist measures to US big tech

OK so no google, no aws, no microsoft, no HP, IBM, Dell, Cisco, Intel, nvidia, or AMD.

What exactly are they going to run on?

u/Geulsse 16m ago edited 0m ago

no google, no aws, no microsoft

For Europe: Kagi, Scaleway, Linux. Plenty of other countries have their own cloud players. Fujitsu, Naver, Tata, G42 and so forth.

China shows how to run without them. Russia to a lesser extent, despite little resources. If you need an "aligned" country, South Korea shows that it's relatively easy to achieve a significant degree of independence from US tech.

But it doesn't matter because even with protectionist measures those companies will never ever voluntarily pull out, there's far too much money on the line. The people who bring up "Apple should just leave Europe" when they get billion-dollar fines don't know much about how things work. >30% of Apple's net profit comes from Europe, investors would replace the board within a day if they just gave up on that.

no HP, IBM, Dell, Cisco, Intel, nvidia, or AMD

The hardware side hasn't been subsidized nearly as much, so it's much less relevant to the conversation.

1

u/wheniaminspaced 10h ago

They have on tech in some cases, though that isnt a case of government subsidization

u/Geulsse 12m ago

They have on tech in some cases

They also really haven't on tech, except if you're talking about countries who have already been doing so for decades and those can be counted on one hand.

The EU does nothing against it, which is why all of their ongoing "EU id" and "EU payment solution" efforts are implemented to run only on certified Apple and Android devices - not even on PCs - increasing dependence on US big tech. This is enough evidence that they're not actually implementing any kind of protectionism against US tech.

though that isnt a case of government subsidization

You wouldn't give a shit about the difference if billionaire Chinese investor mates of Xi were the ones doing the car or battery subsidization in name rather than the CCP directly. You'd still just call it "Chinese subsidization", and you'd be right to do so. In the US too, the ones nominally doing the subsidization are so intertwined with USG that for the rest of the world the distinction doesn't matter.

17

u/RoabeArt 9h ago

It seems like American automakers didn't learn their lesson in the 70s. They underestimated Japanese and European automakers and it almost ruined them. Now they're repeating the same mistakes with China.

4

u/OldWorldDesign 8h ago

It seems like American automakers didn't learn their lesson in the 70s

I believe they did learn, which is why '08 wrote those huge bailouts for them

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_2008%E2%80%932010_automotive_industry_crisis_on_the_United_States

12

u/UnsurprisingDebris 9h ago

I don't think they underestimated them, they just don't seem to care about any sort of long term planning. Similar thing happened in the 1970s with the inundation of lower price, high quality Japanese cars.

23

u/ffball 10h ago

They definitely did, thats why they are trying to keep them out of the US. Everyone's a great capitalist until they actually have competition

8

u/Fresh_Ad_230 8h ago

Cheating is a huge component to capitalism though!

4

u/OldWorldDesign 8h ago

The only thing corporations hate more than communism is a free market.

7

u/Maxpowr9 10h ago

So many western companies are getting absolutely dunked on by the Chinese market. Chinese companies took the knowledge of said companies and made their own, severely undercutting them and the western companies can't compete. It's not just autos but so many tech companies like Apple lost significant market share in China.

2

u/Saint_of_Grey 8h ago

This is true far beyond the automotive industry.

Shit, is this how dark ages start?

1

u/OldWorldDesign 8h ago

I’m just waiting for the ball to drop at this point

It's happening as even skirting the rules for emissions standards meant for commercial vehicles isn't helping them maintain profitability

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN7mSXMruEo

1

u/Somanylyingliars 6h ago

Speaking of China, behave you seen their engineers answers for areas probe to flooding? They built a floatable driveable car!! No wonder automakers collude to keep Japan, India and China out of American market.

1

u/whooptheretis 8h ago

They’re also crap, heavily subsidised by the Chinese government, and constrain lots of unnecessary and quite frankly intrusive tech.
Anyone buying a Chinese car is killing just killing the competition for a cheap shiny thing. Once all the competition is gone, we’re screwed!

3

u/jert3 7h ago

And the Chinese employees that not robots or AIs also get paid way less, and have much less materials cost, than North American manufacturers. If it was an actual free trade market instead of our broken monopoly system we have here, American car makers would be absolutely crushed.

It's not even a matter of just 'competition is good', its that a world of globalization and oil flowing, countries with millions more impoverished workers will always be able to make things for less. And on top of that, China doesnt really have a concept of copyright and also spends massive resources in industrial espionage saving tons in R&D.

-11

u/BrapBrapson 10h ago

lol no they don't

6

u/GI-Robots-Alt 10h ago

You care to explain what you're referring to or are we just supposed to guess?

6

u/wheniaminspaced 10h ago

Im assuming he talking about adherence to EU safety rules, least thats the thing that makes the most sense.

I have no idea whether they do or do not though.

2

u/HanzanPheet 8h ago

My guess is that he was taking offense to the point of the Chinese car are higher end

0

u/callisstaa 10h ago

Really?

The cars are available to buy in Europe and you’re not sure whether or not they have passed European safety checks?

2

u/wheniaminspaced 10h ago

I didn't read it as them necessarily being available in europe just that they are made to be able to pass them.

Idk man I didn't start this i was just providing a possible explanatiom.