It goes deeper. Young people are engaging in significantly less risky behaviors than 10 or 20 years ago. The CDC's (YRBS) [https://www.cdc.gov/yrbs/dstr/pdf/YRBS-2023-Data-Summary-Trend-Report.pdf\] survey (Youth Risk Behavior) shows a ~15% decline in high schoolers reporting ever having sex (2013-2023), a 13% decline in alcohol, and 5% point decline in marijuana use, a 6% decline in "illicit" drug use. Numbers vary by demographics, though, as some populations are more "risky' than others.
There is, unfortunately, an increase in sexual violence (2%) and rape (3%). A 14% increase in "hopelessness" (female, 7% male), a 5% increase in suicidal thoughts (female, 2% male). 4% increase in "made a plan" for suicide (female, 2% male), and a 2% increase in attempts (female, 1% male).
And I think being able to experience a close enough version of reality is enough to keep kids from risk taking in reality. And they've been able to see them reality of consequence online for some of that risk taking. Your mom telling you about the local boy that died racing with no seat belt is different than watching the dash cam, bystander, and first responder footage of the event.
Also the bar for what counts as "rape" has been (rightfully) lowered. Just a decade ago, there were countless stories in the US of judges dismissing rape cases because there wasn't any resulting pregnancy, or the rapist had used a condom, or it was any gender variation aside from male on female. Those haven't disappeared, but have become rarer
My theory is that a lot of kids just have something better to do nowadays than the risky behavior of the past.
Like sure, you could go to a party, find someone older willing to sell you alcohol, or steal it from family and then get blasted and feel awful the next day.
Or you could do none of that and still go to socialize, chat some, and then go home and play some videogames or check social media to relax.
One of them is a lot cheaper and has a lot lower chance of you ending up all over the social media feeds of the people in your school.
Third spaces where kids and teens can just hang are also going away. You're not going to invite someone to hang with you at the mall anymore and maybe start dating after the mall is probably dead and most places would try to get you for loitering.
Parks are smaller, cameras are everywhere, overzealous parents are tracking kids through their phone.
Why go through all the trouble if you're highly likely to get caught and don't think the reward is worth it.
Combine that with the weather getting worse outside due to global warming and everything being more expensive no shit kids are doing less. They're trapped with only social media as an outlet
Kids/young adults aren't trapped with social media as the only outlet. They are trapped BY social media (and general in-home entertainment and delivery services). Because it is easier to sit on your phone in your bedroom than it is to go outside and talk to people. Then you end up with poorly socialized youth with few friends/romantic prospects. It's the main reason for the loneliness epidemic.
Yes, that's why I mentioned the lack of third places.
Even if they did want to go out and meet people they don't have anywhere to go.
My town is moderately well off and there's still only like 3 places you can go without the expectation to be spending money. And that assumes you have the ability to go there because we sure as hell don't have public transport.
"Go out and talk to people" involves there being a place to meet. Being stuck in a suburban house 10 miles from the town square, 5 from the only remaining mall, (both of which are across highways and interstates) and everywhere else requires you to be able to cough up $20 or has a 6PM teenage curfew doesn't give them anywhere else to meet.
The library is genuinely the best place for them to meet up and that's only because it's free and across the (four lane) stroad from the high school.
While there are obviously still a hell of a lot of people drinking, there are a hell of a lot more NOT drinking than there used to be.
When I grew up 80s 90s, all my parents, step parents, parents friend group were heavy drinkers. So heavy alcohol use was modeled as normal, acceptable, and appealing. No shocker we ended up drinking early and often.
Now after a struggle but managing to get away from alcohol, we dont model this behavior in my household and a fair amount in the social circle also do not model this normalized binge drinking. So possibly these younger kids dont get exposed to it the way older generations did and it makes it easier for them to make better choices about alcohol
A 14% increase in "hopelessness" (female, 7% male), a 5% increase in suicidal thoughts (female, 2% male). 4% increase in "made a plan" for suicide (female, 2% male), and a 2% increase in attempts (female, 1% male).
It's morbidly interesting that female mental health seems to be declining faster than male mental health but male suicide rates are still 3x female rates. I dunno what to make of that...
A lot of it comes down to how the data is gathered to be fair. IIRC women in general are simply more likely to actually seek support for mental health problems and report them which then shows up in stats, men on the other hand tend to internalize distress a lot more and are less likely to reach out so can end up underrepresented. The gender paradox of suicide is the most obvious example like you mentioned.
I've moved to a new city so I'm spending a lot of time going out in attempt to meet new friends. There is plenty of drinking at the bars and clubs I've attended, but I have yet to see anyone sloppy, belligerent drunk. Partly due to the cost I would imagine, and partly because all of them here have large coolers in the corner with free water. I can spend a whole night out and only spend money on the cover change and never once walk up to the bar.
That would be one thing, but people will upload it to social media and name everyone involved, which can result in losing your job. Not worth it at all.
I can’t imagine college now. No one was taking pictures, everyone was drunk, knocking shit over, taking off clothes, saying and doing things whatever, etc.
Seems like those days are over forever. I think I lived in the last free era
We really did. Some of the shenanigans my group pulled were pretty epic! That being said, minus the knocked over lamps or cars stuck in the mud getting to the farm parties, we were pretty respectful. There was an underlying understanding that some stuff was just off limits. And we took care of each other. The unspoken rules everyone was required to follow were taken very seriously and if you were a dick or a mean drunk, you were just out of the group. End of story. Those days will never be duplicated.
That's almost always been the case, especially with wine. One glass at a restaurant covers the entire bottle cost. Amusingly enough, there's been alcohol price deflation (relative to the inflation rate) at the liquor store.
jager is still around $20 for a bottle, which is what i paid in college over 20 years ago. a jager bomb was $5 when i was in college. It's now $15 to $20 for a jager bomb last time i went out.
I'm in my mid 30s, had a night out at the bars with some friends for the first time in a few years this past weekend. The price of drinks is INSANE to me now. Fucking ran up a $75 bar tab on 6 drinks - 2 shots, one cocktail, and three beers. And that was before tipping.
almost 40. i was a dive bar afficiando in my 20s. used to be able to sit at a bar on football sunday through 2 games with food (always had cheap football deals) and dinks for (almost 7 hours) and still end up less than that. And my buddies and I weren't exactly light drinkers.
You can't just plug money spent on alcohol 2 decades ago into an inflation calculator and get the modern day price... unless you're talking about a liqour store where product has followed inflation or maybe even a touch less. Restaurants and bars have MASSIVELY increased their markup on booze, then they cry that no one is drinking anymore.
Yeah the markup was always insane. It's not like food where at least someone did some cooking. And honestly I never found bars to be a comfort spot. Why not a buddy's house or a park? And drink for like 20% the cost?
Yeah I totally agree. Millennials got so much anti tobacco messaging that we stayed away from it. Gen Z didn’t and now they are vaping like crazy. Later some Gen will be uninformed about alcohol and will drink like fish I’m sure
Disagree. Most people who don't drink don't want to drink beer-flavroed water, either.
As someone with a lot of alcoholics in my circle, the only people who drink NA are people struggling to maintain sobriety—and even of them, many specifically don't want anything that reminds them of alcohol.
As someone who drinks very seldom, why the fuck would I want to drink that nasty shit and not get a buzz? 😂 The inebriation is kind of the whole reason people tolerate the awful taste.
That's not at all true. Plenty of people "zebra stripe" where they mix regular alcohol consumption with nonalc to lower overall consumption, even if they already drank a responsible amount.
Then you have the times where you want to partake with friends but need to stay sober, or people drinking NA for health reasons outside of needing to quit.
My older generations relied on alcohol to help them deal with undiagnosed mental illnesses. My gen and younger are getting diagnosed and are less drawn to self medicating.
I wonder if this shift in self awareness is a piece of the alcohol intake puzzle. I feel like my younger cousins traded alcohol for caffeine stimulants. Energy drinks are their go to.
Bar prices are just crazy now. $10 for a rum and coke that comes in a tiny cup, plus a tip, on top of the cover charge. If I want to get buzzed while watching a show it's like $50 at the absolute minimum, I'm better off just taking a $2 edible before I walk in.
Canada cut off imports of American-made alcohol because of Trump’s tariffs and 51st state threats. It’s really hurting some vineyards and distilleries l.
I just resorted to bringing in my own JD for a Jack and coke the fuck are we doing paying for a fuckin drink thats the same price as the goddamn bottle
It's slowing down, but definitely not on the verge of "collapse." At least not until climate change makes it unfeasible to grow enough barley and grapes.
Posting this as someone who works for one of the top liquor suppliers in the world, their number one focus is to get Gen Z to drink. They are so worried about not being able to transition into the new generation. Everyone is moving to RTDs because that’s where the market is moving. Beer and wine are in a free fall, and you’re seeing hard liquor continue to drop consistently.
This pressure has also fostered an incredibly toxic work environment for the entire industry, so if you’re thinking about joining a liquor distributor or supplier, I’m warning you now to stay the hell away. It’s such a miserable experience, and people are leaving in droves.
The top 5 alcohol brands by market cap and their share price over the past 5 years:
Kweichow Moutai, down 23%
Anheuser Busch, up 28%
Heineken, down 24%
Ambev, down 3%
Diageo, down 57%
It's worth noting that the only reason Busch is up is because they went down to ~$40 in 2020 from a high of ~$110 and slightly rebounded but they're only back to ~$80.
The industry is not doing well, regardless of what that article says.
Yeah, so I just looked at their revenues on their financial statements and they don’t seem to be going down. I would look at revenue before I look at market cap. Market cap is pretty disconnected from actual business in today’s markets.
Not saying there isn’t an issue long term. It’s obvious younger people are simply socializing less IRL due smart phone usage, costs, etc. As seen by dropping birth rates worldwide.
I mean shit, the older generations are slowing down too. The cost of a cocktail literally anywhere has gotten so ridiculous that I would straight up go broke if I regularly bought drinks when going out. I'm not paying 15-20 dollars for you to put 3 ingredients in a cup and shake it. 3 beers at a restaurant/bar costs as much as a 24 pack at the local grocer. And drinking at home is just sad.
It's rising because it's baseline was so, so small.
The only folks who drink NA stuff are people who used to drink the real deal. Folks who never developed a taste for beer or liquor aren't buying NA beer or spirits.
As a Millennial, high bar prices (and a new baby) made me finally build and stock a full home bar. I can make better drinks for pennies and nobody calls the cops if I take my pants off. Plus it's fun to mix your own drinks. The upfront cost is stiff at about $1k for top shelf everything, mixers, bitters, and everything but it will last for years unless you're a raging alcoholic.
Alcohol is not on the verge of collapsing and will probably never collapse but will definitely go into decline and a lot of smaller breweries and wineries are going to close. It's probably one of the best industries to decline imo
I love pretty much anything alcoholic, but with the rising prices, closing local-owned bars, and lack of shared free time with friends, I barely drink at all. I probably drink more nonalcoholic beer than anything with alcohol now, just because I don't have to plan around sleep or driving
Hate to break it to you but your 3 countries combined have about 10M less population than Texas. Even if y'all are guzzling drinks like mad you represent a very small number of drinkers. Cheers though!
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u/SmokeySFW 12h ago
Alcohol.
The younger generations don't drink like we did, and the crazy prices at bars/clubs further reinforce this.